Sic Transit Gloria Mundi - MWC 2010 In Retrospect or How The West Has Won

Several people have asked me this week for my "MWC 2010 highlights". While many have covered the obvious trends - "rise of the app", "Android domination" (?) etc., what struck me the most was the total shift in the global wireless balance of power. This was pretty obvious on the MWC stage as well as off it.

Just a few years ago, the wireless world was basically described this way - "America lags, Europe and APAC lead, and Japan is on a plane of its own with sci-fi technology and user adoption."

By 2010 - All the leading platforms are American - iPhone, Android and BlackBerry. MWC 2010 was dominated by the non-participants, and no, I don't mean Nokia... 80% of the show ranged from knock-off to homage for the iPhone - device, operating system and ecosystem. Much of that is being provided by the Silicon Valley neighbor and former partner Google, with everyone with a an electronics assembly line launching an Android handset (Taiwanese PC-compatibles circa 1985 anyone?). And the people with a real smartphone business going on are of course RIM, who have the only other effective, service-based mobile ecosystem rooted in a key Internet application (e-mail).

The contenders? Microsoft is trying to stage a Rocky III-type comeback with Windows Phone (good luck with that!). Nokia hosted its own separate show and managed to anger hundreds of journalists who stood in line for over an hour to be admitted to the MeeGo announcement press conference. They, in turn, reciprocated by simply not writing about it. I watched the media for MeeGo coverage in the 24 hours after the announcement - you'd think Nokia and Intel were two early-stage start-ups trying to scrape a few lines of coverage from second-tier technology bloggers.

What happened? It's probably fairly simple. Once the internet and mobile were finally integrated effectively for the first time by Apple, it is those companies who are immersed in the Internet - understand it, influence it, shape it - who are setting the standard for everyone else to follow. By doing so they get to a leadership position regardless of their actual market standing. Who cares Nokia / Symbian shipped 40 times more phones last year than the entire Android camp combined? The cracks in the wall are visible to all.

One person who seems to understand it is Sanjay Jah, CEO of Motorola's handset unit, who according to the Wall Street Journal is planning to move Motorola's handset business to California. Personally I am not sure he'll be able to bend all interested parties to his will, but his desire is clear and the motives are sound.

Finally - the last fort standing of the world as we knew it is falling. Japan, the mecca of mobile-obsessed consumers holding the glitziest, most advanced internet-capable handsets - has succumbed. Through the iPhone, Softbank has been able to outpace mighty DoCoMo in subscriber additions by launching the iPhone - the #3 player is now the fastest growing one. Oh, and guess which customers they are adding? By definition - the highest ARPU customers, switching away from KDDI and DoCoMo. The response? More of the same. DoCoMo, in turn is putting more and more behind the Android platform, shifting focus from i-Mode to smartphones. But hey - does that mean Japan is now a follower?

So - forget the world as you knew it. It's been Californicated.

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